When the Packers head to AT&T Stadium to face the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night, the NFC’s early‑season narrative takes a sharp turn. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET in Arlington, Texas, as part of Week 4 Sunday Night FootballAT&T Stadium. The stakes are high: Green Bay sits 2‑1 and unbeaten in conference play, while Dallas trails at 1‑2 after a late‑four‑minute collapse against the New York Giants.
Background and Stakes
Both teams entered the season with lofty expectations, yet their trajectories have diverged. The Packers have leveraged a balanced attack and a stout defense to claim a 6‑point road favorite line, according to the latest market data. By contrast, the Cowboys are grappling with a defensive unit that ranks in the bottom six for yards allowed (397.7 ypg) and points surrendered (30.7 ppg).
Adding intrigue, former Dallas defensive end Micah Parsons returned to his old stadium as a Green Bay player after a surprise trade just a week before the season opened. The move has already reshaped the Packers’ pass rush, but it also leaves Dallas without their erstwhile premier edge‑rusher.
Key Storylines and Player Updates
On the offensive side, the Cowboys are missing star wideout CeeDee Lamb, ruled out with a high‑ankle sprain. CBS Sports analyst Craig Dajani warned that losing Lamb "drastically diminishes Dallas’s vertical threat," especially as quarterback Dak Prescott has struggled to find consistent weapons this season.
Across the line, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur boasts a 22‑11‑1 record against the spread in prime‑time games, the best cover percentage among coaches since 2000. LaFleur’s play‑calling has turned Green Bay into a “well‑oiled offensive machine,” as Tim Taranto of CBS Sports noted.
Betting Odds and Expert Projections
Bookmakers have set the money‑line at –300 to –340 for Green Bay and +225 to +270 for Dallas, meaning a bettor must risk roughly $300 to win $100 on the Packers. The over/under hovers between 46.5 and 47.5 points, reflecting expectations of a moderately high‑scoring affair.
ESPN’s Football Power Index assigns the Packers a 58.8 % win probability and predicts them as 3.5‑point favorites. Dajani leans toward a 27‑17 Packers victory, citing LaFleur’s prime‑time success and the Cowboys’ porous secondary, which has allowed a 71 % completion rate and just one interception over the last two games.
Taranto paints a more lopsided picture: a 41‑13 blowout, arguing that Dallas’s trade of Parsons “has left them without any real pass‑rush threat, forcing the secondary to sit back and get overwhelmed.” He also emphasizes Jerry Jones’ ongoing contract negotiations with star players, suggesting the front office’s focus may be pulling resources away from on‑field improvements.
Historical Matchup and Home/Away Trends
The Packers have dominated this rivalry in recent years. They are 6‑0 all‑time at AT&T Stadium and haven’t lost to Dallas since 2016. Green Bay also boasts a five‑game winning streak overall against the Cowboys.
Dallas, meanwhile, is 3‑7 at home since the start of 2024, a stark contrast to the 5‑4 road record the Packers have compiled since last summer. Those numbers reinforce the notion that the Cowboys’ home‑field advantage has evaporated, while the Packers thrive in hostile environments.
What to Watch on Sunday Night
- Micah Parsons vs. Dallas secondary: Will Parsons’ presence force extra pressure, or will Dallas’s scheme adapt?
- Dallas’ run game without Lamb: Can the Cowboys lean on Ezekiel Elliott or Tony Pollard to sustain drives?
- Packers’ aerial attack targeting Jordan Love’s development under LaFleur’s guidance.
- Special teams – a hidden factor that could swing momentum in a close contest.
All eyes will also be on how quickly Prescott can adjust his throwing windows without his premier receiver. The outcome could set the tone for the Cowboys’ next two games, while a Packers win would solidify Green Bay’s status as an early NFC contender.
Key Facts
- Date & time: September 29, 2025 at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
- Current records: Packers 2‑1, Cowboys 1‑2
- Spread: Packers –6.5 points; Over/Under: 46.5‑47.5
- Key injuries: CeeDee Lamb (out)
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this game affect the Packers’ playoff chances?
A victory would push Green Bay to 3‑1, keeping them atop the NFC North and solidifying a favorable bye‑week scenario. Even a loss would still leave them in contention, but dropping to 2‑2 could force a later‑season push for the wildcard spots.
What impact will the Micah Parsons trade have on the Cowboys’ defense?
Parsons was Dallas’s primary edge‑rusher; his departure leaves a void that the Cowboys haven’t adequately filled. Expect fewer sacks and more pressure on Prescott, which could expose the secondary’s weakness against deep passes.
Why is CeeDee Lamb’s injury significant for Dallas?
Lamb accounts for roughly 20 % of the Cowboys’ receiving yards and is a primary red‑zone target. His high‑ankle sprain removes a deep threat, forcing Prescott to rely on less experienced receivers, which could hamper the passing game against a disciplined Packers defense.
Do the betting odds accurately reflect the teams’ strengths?
The –300 to –340 line for Green Bay mirrors their statistical edge in both offense and defense. The Cowboys’ injuries and defensive lapses justify the +225 to +270 odds, signaling that bookmakers view Dallas as the clear underdog.
What are the experts predicting for the final score?
CBS’s Craig Dajani bets on a 27‑17 Packers win, citing LaFleur’s prime‑time success. Tim Taranto goes even farther, projecting a 41‑13 rout, arguing that Dallas’s depleted pass rush and Lamb’s absence will leave them exposed.
